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A new forecast by ACT Research does not bode well for companies producing and/or buying heavy-duty trucks.

Tariffs continue to sow uncertainty in commercial vehicle markets, and even if relief is granted in the form of the Supreme Court reiterating Congress’s power of the purse regarding International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEP) tariffs, damage in the short term has already been done, as published in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK.

“The initial tariff roll out in April sparked a mini-prebuy and pushed Class 8 tractor retail sales above replacement levels, further prolonging the longest for-hire downturn in recent memory,” according to Ken Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “On top of the IEEPA tariffs, the trucking industry is contending with the new §232 tariffs, a 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses.

“Seeing as we are nearing year four of generationally low carrier profits, and freight rates remain sluggish, the sudden and onerous cost increase will reduce already weak new U.S. vehicle demand, at a time when backlog cushions should be accumulating.”

“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short to medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads, and data centers remain positive for vocational in the long run,” Vieth added.

The list of 2026 demand headwinds is long:

• freight rates and for-hire carrier profits remain mired at recessionary levels
• a freight air-pocket happening now that follows an extended tariff-avoiding freight pull-forward
• accelerating tariff-driven goods inflation that will weigh on freight volumes
• a pullback by private fleets after significant fleet expansion in 2023-2024
• specific uncertainty surrounding EPA’27
• and macro-level uncertainty around US economic policy

Tariffs boosting new vehicle prices on top of recession-level market conditions are just one more obstacle in an already obstacle-strewn 2026 demand outlook, according to ACT.